Breaking
Berlin CDU election odds drop 15pp as whale bets diverge from price move
Whales bought $6K in YES contracts even as Polymarket’s price for CDU winning Berlin slid from 23.0% to 8.0%.
Jul 11
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds drop 16.1pp despite whale buying
Polymarket prices for Iran military action on July 11 fell sharply while whale flow moved opposite, signaling trader skepticism.
Jul 11
Breaking
Odds for 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, drop 20pp in 24h
Polymarket’s price for 'Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz' fell sharply despite whale buying diverging from the price move.
Jul 11
Breaking
Odds for Anthropic as Best Math AI Model by July 2026 Jump 16pp on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp price rise, pushing YES odds from 36.5% to 52.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 11
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on Strait of Hormuz ship transit drops 17 pp amid whale flow divergence
The market for 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, saw a sharp 17 pp decline in YES price while whale activity moved against the price trend.
Jul 11
Whales
$218K Net Whale Bets on England Clash with 14.4% Market Price for 2026 World Cup
Whales have pushed $1.49M into YES bets over 24 hours despite the market pricing England’s win at 14.4%.
Jul 11
Breaking
Claude Fable 5 Extension Odds Drop 15pp Despite Whale Buying
Whale activity diverged from price action as the market sharply lowered the chance of Anthropic extending Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access by July 12.
Jul 11
Whales
$179K Net Whale Flow Into Norway World Cup Win Bets, Versus 5.9% Market Price
Whale buying on Norway's 2026 World Cup win contrasts sharply with its low market-implied probability amid $129.81M total volume.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Kash Patel out by December 31?” YES odds jump 20pp to 56.5% with $16K whale support
Whales bought $29K in YES contracts, aligning with a 20-point jump in odds over 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 11
Whales
$450K Sell Trade on Norway to Advance Against Market Odds at 34.9%
A single wallet sold $450K on Norway advancing despite market-implied probability under 35%, diverging from whale buying trends.
Jul 11