Breaking
YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 36.5 pp amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s odds for 40 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, fell sharply despite whales not supporting the move.
Jul 12
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 67.5 pp to 82% amid aligned whale buying
Polymarket’s ‘Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?’ contract saw a sharp repricing supported by whale flow, pushing odds from 14.5% to 82%.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 21 pp to 52.5% amid $22K whale bets
Whales pushed net $22K into YES contracts as Polymarket prices for a US blockade on Iran by August 31 rose sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Riz Ahmed Emmy win odds plunge 25pp to 16.5% as whale flow diverges
Whale activity on Polymarket diverged sharply from a 25 percentage point drop in Riz Ahmed’s Emmy odds, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 40pp in 24h
Whale bets diverged sharply from price, signaling a split view on the likelihood of 40 ships crossing by July 31, 2026.
Jul 12
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 16pp despite $41K whale buy flow
Whale buying diverged sharply from falling market prices, signaling conflicting signals on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Drop 18.9 Points Despite Whale Flow
Polymarket’s market on a July 15 launch saw YES contract price plunge from 19.4% to 0.50% while whale activity diverged, signaling skepticism among major bettors.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? YES price jumps 54.5 pp to 69.5%
Whale trading activity tracked the rapid rise in odds, confirming a sharp market repricing over 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
US blockade on Iran market YES price jumps 21.0 pp to 42.5% with whale buying support
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 21.0 percentage point rise in the Polymarket market's YES price over 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds for 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, drop 31.5 pp in 24h
Whale activity diverged sharply from price movement as YES contract fell from 69.0% to 37.5% on Polymarket.
Jul 12