The Polymarket contract “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” saw its YES price climb sharply by 25.0 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 51.5% to 76.5% as of July 13. This substantial repricing reflects a notable shift in market sentiment toward a higher likelihood of military action on that date.
Alongside the price jump, whale trading activity moved in alignment with the price increase, indicating that large traders contributed to or supported this shift rather than opposing it. The 24-hour trading volume on the market reached $6K, suggesting moderate liquidity behind the move.
The combined increase in the YES contract price and corresponding whale flow alignment points to a consensus among both retail and large-scale participants that the probability of Iran taking military action against a Gulf State on July 13 has risen significantly. This repricing and flow pattern together underscore a strengthening conviction in this outcome within the Polymarket community.
| Market | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2851418 |
| 24h price change | +25.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 76.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 51.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.