Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 58pp to 77% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with a sharp price rise, pushing odds for a diplomatic meeting up from 19% to 77% in 24 hours
Jul 13
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
US blockade on Iran by July 31? YES odds drop 21 pp despite $101K whale buying
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 21-point drop in YES price, signaling conflicting forces in the market.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 62pp to 81% on Polymarket
Whale activity matched the sharp 62 percentage point rise in odds for a meeting by July 14, 2026, signaling strong conviction in the shift.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 59pp to 78% ahead of July 14 deadline
Whale activity and price shifts aligned as Polymarket reevaluated the likelihood of a meeting by mid-July 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 65pp to 84% on Polymarket
Whale activity tracked with price surge as market sharply reprices likelihood of meeting by July 14, 2026
Jul 13
Breaking
Odds for US blockade on Iran by July 31 drop 25.5pp despite $105K whale bets
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 25.5pp decline in YES price, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 68pp to 87% on Polymarket
Whale bets and price action aligned as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of talks by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Whales
Whales Load $356K on France to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 38.9% Market Price
Whale buying diverges from market odds as $115.47M traded on World Cup Winner event with eight days to close.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” YES price falls 17.5 pp amid whale buying divergence
Whale flow of $108K into YES contrasts with a sharp 17.5 percentage point drop in contract price to 30.5%, signaling conflicting signals on Polymarket.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Military Action Probability Jumps 39.5 Points to 84.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour surge in odds for Iran taking military action against a Gulf State on July 12.
Jul 13