Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 67pp to 86% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price movement aligned as market sharply repriced likelihood of talks by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Bitcoin $62,500 July Dip Contract Jumps 20.2pp as Whales Add $17K
The market for Bitcoin dipping to $62,500 in July surged to 95.2% YES price as whale activity confirmed the move with $25K buys.
Jul 13
Whales
$193K Net Whale Flow into YES on England to Win 2026 World Cup vs 21.6% Market Price
Whales have bought $945K against $500K sold, diverging from the market-implied probability of England winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Jul 13
Breaking
Odds Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 drop 21.5 pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket's 'Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?' contract saw a sharp 21.5 percentage point price decline while whale buying increased, signaling contrasting market signals.
Jul 13
Whales
$508K Whale Bet on John Fetterman Defies 0.65% Market Odds
A single trade by wallet @c0O0OLI0O03 challenges consensus in the 2028 Democratic nominee market with the largest Polymarket wager in 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds jump 25.7 points to 47.9% with whale support
Polymarket’s “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” market sees price and whale flow rise in tandem, signaling growing conviction.
Jul 13
Whales
Whales Push $370K Into Spain Win at 20.8% Despite Market Pricing
Net whale flow into Spain's 2026 World Cup win bet diverges from prevailing market odds in a $107.17M volume market.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 63pp to 82% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price shifts moved in tandem as the market sharply repriced expectations for a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? YES odds jump 38.5 pp to 78%
Whale trading backed a sharp 24-hour surge in the probability of Iranian military action in the Gulf, pushing prices from 39.5% to 78%.
Jul 13
Breaking
Odds Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 drop 15.5 pp to 40% on Polymarket
Whale activity diverges from price move as market odds fall sharply in 24 hours on Kostyantynivka capture question
Jul 13