Breaking
Odds for No Next UK Culture Secretary in 2026 Jump 38.5pp to 50% on Polymarket
Whales backed the sharp rally in the market, adding $4K net to YES as prices doubled in a day.
Jul 13
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 71pp to 90% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price movement aligned sharply as market reprices the likelihood of a meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Anthropic’s Best Math AI Model Odds Surge 31.5pp to 85.5% on Polymarket
Whales pushed $3K net into YES as market odds jumped sharply, aligning flow with price despite a wide on-chain price gap.
Jul 13
Breaking
US Iran blockade market drops 15pp despite $16K whale buying
Whale buying flows diverged from a sharp 15pp fall in the Polymarket contract’s YES price, signaling mixed signals on US action against Iran.
Jul 13
Breaking
US Iran oil sanction relief odds jump 16pp to 39% as whale flow backs move
Polymarket’s 'US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?' contract surged from 23% to 39% in 24 hours with aligned whale activity.
Jul 13
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?” YES price falls 18pp as whale flow diverges
Whales bought $26K in YES contracts while Polymarket’s price dropped from 58.0% to 40.0%, signaling conflicting signals.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds soar 74pp to 93% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price movement align as market sharply reprices near certainty for diplomatic talks by July 14, 2026
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Gulf State Military Action Odds Surge 38.8pp to 54.9% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price moves aligned as the market sharply repriced likelihood of Iran military action on July 9.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 58pp to 83.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with sharp price jump, signaling strong market conviction in a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Odds McConnell Will Step Down Before Term End Drop 24.5 Points Despite $27K Whale Bets
Whale buying diverges from sharply falling YES price on McConnell resignation market, signaling conflicting signals in trader behavior.
Jul 13