The probability that Pamela Evette will become the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina dropped sharply by 40.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, falling from 45.5% to 5.5% as of July 14, 2026. This dramatic repricing reflects a significant shift in sentiment around her chances.
Despite the steep decline in the YES contract price, whale trading activity diverged from this downward move, indicating conflicting signals in the market. The divergence between large trader flow and the price action suggests that while retail or smaller traders pushed the odds lower, whales have not aligned their positions with the selloff. Polymarket’s total volume for the market over 24 hours was $8K, highlighting moderate liquidity amid these moves.
This split between price and whale flow points to uncertainty or possible disagreement among informed traders about Evette’s nomination prospects. The market’s sharp drop in implied probability indicates a strong reevaluation of her chances, but the whale activity divergence suggests some remain unconvinced by the broader market consensus.
Overall, the combined price drop and contrasting whale flow signal a contested outlook in this Senate nomination market, with potential for further volatility as traders digest new information.
| Market | Will Pamela Evette be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2896075 |
| 24h price change | +40.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 5.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 45.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $8K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.