Breaking
Ed Miliband Chancellor Market Drops 26.5pp Amid Whale Flow Divergence
Polymarket’s YES price for Ed Miliband as UK Chancellor fell from 68.5% to 42.0% despite whales buying $3K net into the contract.
Jul 14
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 33.9 points to 97.4% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with a sharp rise in market confidence for a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 14
Breaking
Bitcoin $60K July Dip Odds Slide 22pp Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Polymarket's Bitcoin dip market sees a sharp 22 percentage point drop in YES price as whale activity moves against the price trend.
Jul 14
Breaking
US Iran oil sanction relief odds plunge 23.5pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s ‘US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?’ market saw YES contract drop from 33.5% to 10%, despite whale activity opposing the price shift.
Jul 14
Breaking
Ethereum $1,900 July Contract Surges 38.5pp as Whales Back Rally with $14K Net Buys
Polymarket’s YES price for Ethereum hitting $1,900 in July jumps from 49.5% to 88.0%, supported by whale buying aligned with the price move.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?” YES price plunges 65.8 pp to 30.0% on Polymarket
Whale flow diverged sharply from price action as Polymarket’s YES contract dropped from 95.8% to 30.0%, signaling a market rift.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 52.9 Points to 100% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price moved in tandem as odds surged from 47.0% to certainty within 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
YES price on 30 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz tumbles 75.7pp to 20.1% amid whale buying divergence
Polymarket’s market sharply cuts odds while whale flow pushes YES contracts, signaling a split between price and large trader sentiment.
Jul 14
Breaking
Odds for 30 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, plunge 63.5pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s YES price dropped from 95.8% to 32.2% despite $22K whale buys, signaling conflicting signals between price action and whale trading.
Jul 14
Whales
Whales Add $494K to France 2026 World Cup Win Bets Despite 39.1% Market Price
Net whale inflow into France’s 2026 World Cup win market sharply contrasts with its sub-40% market-implied probability.
Jul 14