Breaking
“Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES price jumps 46.9pp to 99.4%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in odds, signaling near certainty in the market over 24 hours.
Jul 14
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
“Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?” YES price drops 61.8 pp despite $30K whale inflow
Polymarket’s YES price for the Strait of Hormuz transit market plunged from 95.8% to 34.0% in 24 hours while whales bought $30K net into YES, signaling a sharp divergence between price action and whale behavior.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?” YES price jumps 63.6pp to 91.1%
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 24-hour surge on Polymarket, lifting odds from 27.5% to 91.1%.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?” YES contract jumps 81.7 pp to 90.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with the sharp price surge, driving $9K net flow into YES amid $60K 24-hour volume.
Jul 14
Breaking
Ed Miliband Chancellor Market Drops 21pp as Whale Flow Diverges from Price
Polymarket’s price for Ed Miliband becoming UK Chancellor fell sharply despite $4K whale net buying, signaling mixed signals from large traders and market pricing.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?” YES price jumps 37 pp to 83.0% with whale flow support
Whales added a net $12K into YES as market odds surged from 46.0% to 83.0%, signaling strong conviction on Ethereum’s near-term price target.
Jul 14
Whales
Whales Pour $478K Into Argentina Win Bets Despite 17.3% Market Price
A $478K net inflow from whales into Argentina’s 2026 World Cup win contrasts sharply with the market’s 17.3% implied probability.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?” YES price jumps 87.5 pp to 96.4% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour rise with $7K net flow into YES contracts amid $57K total volume.
Jul 14
Breaking
Inflation Market Surges 98.5pp to 100% on Polymarket with $26K Whale Inflow
Whales and price action aligned as annual inflation odds for June jumped sharply, signaling strong conviction in a low inflation outcome.
Jul 14
Breaking
Fed Rate Hold Odds Surge 18pp to 93.5% on $2.69M Whale Buy Flow
Whales and retail traders pushed the probability of no Fed rate change after July 2026 sharply higher, diverging from on-chain mid-prices.
Jul 14