The prediction market on whether Max Martin will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding saw its YES contract jump 41.9 percentage points in the past 24 hours, climbing from 25.0% to 66.9%.
This sharp repricing was supported by whale activity that moved in concert with the price shift. Over the same period, whales bought $10K worth of YES contracts and sold $6K, resulting in a net $5K inflow into YES positions. The alignment between whale flow and the price surge indicates confidence among large traders in the increased likelihood of Max Martin’s attendance.
Market liquidity was moderate, with Polymarket recording $11K in 24-hour volume and a lifetime market volume of $148K. Participation included 70 unique whales and a total of 402 unique traders over the market’s lifespan, highlighting a broad base of interest.
The combined price jump and whale buying suggest a significant reassessment of the event’s probability by the market’s largest participants. This coordinated movement signals a stronger conviction behind the YES outcome, reflecting evolving expectations around the wedding guest list.
| Market | Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941765 |
| 24h price change | +41.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 66.9% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 25.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 66.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 70 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 402 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.