The Polymarket contract “Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?” saw its YES price plunge 20.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, retreating from 51.5% to 31.5% as of July 19. This sharp revaluation reflects a significant shift in market sentiment against Allam’s chances.
Despite the steep price drop, whale activity diverged from the price move. Large traders collectively bought $9K worth of YES contracts and sold $6K, resulting in a net $4K inflow into YES positions. This net whale buying stands in contrast to the overall market price decline, as indicated by the flow divergence flag.
Trading volume for the market totaled $11K in the last 24 hours, contributing to a lifetime volume of $50K with 267 unique traders participating since inception. The presence of 55 unique whale traders over the period shows substantial large-scale interest, even as the contract’s odds moved lower.
What this means
The opposing signals from price and whale activity suggest a split in conviction among large traders versus the broader market. While the contract’s implied probability sharply declined, whales appear to be accumulating YES exposure.
| Market | Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1822538 |
| 24h price change | +20.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 31.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 51.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 31.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $9K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 55 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 267 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.