The Polymarket contract “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” surged dramatically, with its YES price climbing 66.3 percentage points in the last 24 hours, from 33.5% to 99.8%, according to the Polymarket Breaking feed on July 13. This massive repricing reflects a near-certain market view that a blockade announcement is imminent.
Whale activity aligned with this price rally, as 319 unique whales contributed $589K in buy volume and $241K in sell volume, resulting in a net $347K inflow into YES contracts. This strong whale participation supports the price move rather than contradicting it, indicating institutional-level conviction behind the surge. Total 24-hour volume for the market reached $484K, a substantial portion of the contract’s lifetime volume of $1.75M, involving 1,352 unique traders.
Interestingly, the Polymarket on-chain mid-price overview stands at 22.5%, sharply diverging from the Polymarket Breaking YES price of 99.8%. This discrepancy suggests rapid recent trading activity pushing the market price far beyond the on-chain mid, likely capturing fresh information or sentiment shifts not yet reflected on-chain.
This combined picture of a sharp price jump supported by heavy whale buying signals a consensus shift toward an imminent US blockade announcement on Iran by July 31. The alignment of large buyer flow with the price move underscores a strong market conviction that this outcome is increasingly probable.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +66.3 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 99.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 33.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $347K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $589K / $241K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 319 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $484K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,352 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.