The probability that Iran will commit not to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz by Sunday collapsed by 22.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from 23.5% to 1.5% on Polymarket. This dramatic repricing signals a near-consensus view among traders that such a commitment is unlikely.
However, the on-chain whale flow diverged from the price action. Despite the sharp decline in the YES contract price, large traders increased their net positions in favor of YES, indicating a disconnect between whale behavior and the broader market sentiment.
The market traded $159K in volume during this period, reflecting active engagement amid the shifting odds. The divergence between whale flow and price suggests that while retail and smaller traders pushed the price down aggressively, whales positioned themselves counter to this move.
The combined price drop and opposing whale flow highlight a nuanced market dynamic where large traders are not following the crowd but rather staking a position against current market consensus.
| Market | Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2874930 |
| 24h price change | +22.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 23.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $159K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.