The prediction market “Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?” saw its YES contract price jump 47.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from an estimated 37.5% to 84.5%. This substantial repricing reflects a major shift in market expectations about the fundraising outcome.
Whale activity aligned with this price move, with net inflows of $13K into YES contracts over the same period. Whale buy volume was $26K against $13K in sells, involving 53 unique whales, signaling strong participation from large traders as the market moved higher. Total 24-hour market volume stood at $24K, accounting for a significant portion of the market’s $40K lifetime volume, with 92 unique traders overall.
Interestingly, the Polymarket YES price of 84.5% contrasts with the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 54.0%, indicating a divergence between the market’s current price and on-chain data aggregation. This discrepancy suggests either rapid sentiment changes or differing data sources influencing the market.
The combined price surge and whale buying activity indicate growing conviction among large traders that the Credible public sale will exceed $30 million in commitments. The strong demand underpinned by whale flows confirms the market’s sharp upward repricing, marking a notable development in this contract’s trading dynamics.
| Market | Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2845812 |
| 24h price change | +47.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 84.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 37.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 54.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $13K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $26K / $13K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 53 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $24K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 92 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.