Polymarket’s weather vertical recorded $244.72M in trading across 39 city markets today, highlighting intense activity and diverse forecasting opinions. London holds the deepest market with $62.13M wagered on a high temperature ranging narrowly between 30°C and 31.3°C, reflecting a tight consensus among sources.
Dallas emerges as the focal point for disagreement, with forecast highs spanning from 93.2°F to 102.3°F—a 9.1°F gap. This spread is the widest among all cities and involves $9.34M in trading volume, indicating significant uncertainty and opportunity for traders. Notably, Dallas’s actual high yesterday was 98°F, falling within the middle of the forecast range, emphasizing the challenge of precise prediction.
Other notable markets include New York City, with $55.13M traded on highs between 68.4°F and 76°F, showing a 7.6°F spread, and Seattle’s $7.42M market where forecasts diverge by 8.2°F from 76°F to 84.2°F. On the Southern Hemisphere, Buenos Aires and Wellington present smaller forecast ranges of 2.7°C, with volumes of $7.37M and $7.42M respectively, illustrating more settled conditions.
The wide forecast spread in Dallas, coupled with strong volume in major cities like London and New York, underscores how variance in weather predictions drives active trading. These differences make weather markets a dynamic venue for betting on nature’s unpredictability, with actual temperature readings providing the final arbiter.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| London | $62.13M | 30°C–31.3°C | 1.3°C |
| New York City | $55.13M | 68.4°F–76°F | 7.6°F |
| Seoul | $19.70M | 24.9°C–30°C | 5.1°C |
| Atlanta | $9.38M | 89.3°F–95.7°F | 6.4°F |
| Dallas | $9.34M | 93.2°F–102.3°F | 9.1°F |
| Ankara | $7.42M | 26°C–28°C | 2°C |
| Wellington | $7.42M | 12.3°C–15°C | 2.7°C |
| Seattle | $7.42M | 76°F–84.2°F | 8.2°F |
| Buenos Aires | $7.37M | 14.3°C–17°C | 2.7°C |
| Toronto | $7.11M | 25.1°C–27.7°C | 2.6°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-07-07. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.