Forecast sources diverge most sharply on Paris today, with predicted highs ranging from 31.1°C to 34°C—a 2.9°C spread—accompanied by $32K in 24-hour trading volume. This gap marks the widest among 52 active city markets in the weather vertical, which recorded $167K in total volume over the past 24 hours.
Yesterday’s actual high in Paris settled at 28°C, underscoring the challenge in pinpointing today’s temperature amid competing forecasts. Paris’s market depth is substantial, with a lifetime volume of $347.43M, reflecting sustained trader interest in the city’s weather outcomes.
Matching Paris’s $32K volume is Wellington, which shows a narrower forecast spread of 1.7°C between 9.6°C and 11.3°C. Wellington remains the deepest city market by lifetime volume at $162.16M, signaling robust liquidity. London also contributes significant flow, with $26K in 24-hour volume and a forecast range of 26.6°C to 27.6°C, a 1°C spread.
The variance in forecast spreads across these cities illustrates the dynamic nature of weather prediction markets, where traders weigh differing models to price uncertainty. Paris’s broadest spread highlights the highest current forecast uncertainty, while Wellington’s and London’s tighter ranges suggest more consensus among sources.
As each city’s market settles on a precise temperature daily, these forecast disagreements provide a key signal of market sentiment and model confidence. Tracking such divergences offers valuable insight into regional weather prediction challenges and market behavior.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume (24h) | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington | $32K | 9.6°C–11.3°C | 1.7°C |
| Paris | $32K | 31.1°C–34°C | 2.9°C |
| London | $26K | 26.6°C–27.6°C | 1°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-08-02. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.