Forecast sources disagree most sharply on Busan’s high temperature today, with estimates ranging from 30.7°C to 35°C—a 4.3°C spread—and $27K in 24-hour market volume. This contrasts with yesterday’s actual high of 39.1°C in Busan, highlighting ongoing uncertainty in the city’s weather outlook.
Seoul dominates market activity with $125K traded over the past 24 hours, reflecting intense interest in its forecast range of 28.1°C to 31°C, a 2.9°C spread. Paris and London follow with $30K and $27K in 24-hour volume respectively, showing narrower forecast spreads of 2.5°C and 0.7°C. These figures come from 52 active city markets within the weather prediction vertical, which totaled $260K in volume over the last day.
Busan’s wide 4.3°C gap stands out, signifying the most disagreement among forecasters today and driving concentrated trading activity. Seoul’s market depth at $125K further signals where traders place the most weight on forecast precision.
Overall, the data illustrates how weather prediction markets capture regional uncertainty and guide consensus through active trading, with Busan’s broad forecast divergence and Seoul’s volume leadership marking today’s key market dynamics.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume (24h) | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seoul | $125K | 28.1°C–31°C | 2.9°C |
| Paris | $30K | 33.2°C–35.7°C | 2.5°C |
| Busan | $27K | 30.7°C–35°C | 4.3°C |
| London | $27K | 30.7°C–31.4°C | 0.7°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-08-03. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.