Chongqing registers the largest forecast disagreement among Polymarket’s 52 active city weather markets today, with sources predicting a high between 31°C and 33°C—a 2°C spread. This gap stands out amid $27K in 24-hour trading volume for the city, reflecting active speculation on the exact temperature. Yesterday’s actual high in Chongqing was 28.1°C, providing a baseline for traders assessing the forecasts.
London remains the most traded city in the weather vertical, posting $42K in 24-hour volume out of a total $177K across all cities. Its forecast range is narrower, with highs predicted between 29.5°C and 30.2°C, a spread of 0.7°C. London’s all-time market depth is substantial at $587.90M, underlining its prominence in weather betting.
Beijing also draws significant attention with $31K in 24-hour volume. Forecasters there differ by 1.5°C, projecting highs from 33.5°C to 35°C. Beijing’s lifetime volume totals $277.74M, anchoring it as another major hub of weather market liquidity.
These forecast spreads and trading volumes highlight where market participants find uncertainty and opportunity. The wider the disagreement, the more room there is for price movement as actual weather outcomes become known. Polymarket’s $9.00B lifetime vertical depth and $177K daily flow across 52 cities demonstrate robust engagement in forecasting weather, with daily actuals like Chongqing’s 28.1°C providing the final arbiter for market resolution.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume (24h) | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| London | $42K | 29.5°C–30.2°C | 0.7°C |
| Beijing | $31K | 33.5°C–35°C | 1.5°C |
| Chongqing | $27K | 31°C–33°C | 2°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-08-04. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.