Forecast sources disagree most sharply on Taipei’s high temperature today, with predictions ranging from 28.8°C to 31°C, a 2.2°C spread that leads all 52 active city markets on Polymarket. This divergence accompanies $50K in 24-hour trading volume for Taipei, making it the deepest city market in the weather vertical, which totaled $220K in volume across all cities in the past day.
Yesterday’s actual high in Taipei was 34°C, notably above today’s forecast range, highlighting ongoing uncertainty among traders about temperature outcomes. The weather vertical’s all-time trading depth stands at $8.98 billion, with Taipei’s lifetime volume at $196.76 million, underscoring its prominence in the market.
Other cities showing significant forecast spreads include Shenzhen, with a 2.1°C range between 31.9°C and 34°C and $27K in 24-hour volume, and Beijing, where forecasts span 26.9°C to 28.3°C, a 1.4°C spread, also paired with $27K in daily trading. Shenzhen and Beijing rank among the highest in lifetime volume at $250.90 million and $277.18 million respectively, reflecting sustained trader interest.
The daily spread between forecast sources is critical for market participants, as each city settles on a definitive temperature on the same day. This structure rewards accurate forecasting and drives trading volume, with Taipei’s wide spread and heavy flow today spotlighting the active engagement and uncertainty in weather prediction markets.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume (24h) | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taipei | $50K | 28.8°C–31°C | 2.2°C |
| Shenzhen | $27K | 31.9°C–34°C | 2.1°C |
| Beijing | $27K | 26.9°C–28.3°C | 1.4°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.