Weather prediction markets recorded $244.72M in volume today across 39 active city markets, with London holding the largest single market at $62.13M. London’s forecast high ranges from 24.3°C to 27.9°C, reflecting a moderate 3.6°C spread that suggests relative consensus among forecasters.
In contrast, Dallas stands out with the widest forecast disagreement, where sources predict a high between 90.6°F and 101°F—a 10.4°F gap—accompanied by $9.34M in trading volume. This broad range points to significant uncertainty and a highly tradable weather question for the city.
Other notable markets illustrate geographic and forecast diversity. New York City’s market volume reached $55.13M, with a forecast spread of 5.2°F between 90.8°F and 96°F, indicating moderate disagreement. Seoul, with $19.70M in volume, shows a 5.4°C forecast range from 24.6°C to 30°C, reflecting similar uncertainty on a different continent.
At the lower end of forecast spreads, Toronto’s market of $7.11M sees a tight range of 36°C to 36.6°C, just 0.6°C apart, signaling strong consensus. Meanwhile, Wellington’s forecast spans 10.2°C to 12°C with $7.42M traded, showing a narrower disagreement amid its Southern Hemisphere setting.
The wide forecast gaps in cities like Dallas highlight where weather models diverge most, creating dynamic trading opportunities. Meanwhile, London’s deep market volume confirms its status as a key hub for weather-based predictions. Together, these patterns reveal where forecasters align and where uncertainty drives market activity across global weather markets.
Today’s most active weather markets
| City | Volume | Forecast high | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| London | $62.13M | 24.3°C–27.9°C | 3.6°C |
| New York City | $55.13M | 90.8°F–96°F | 5.2°F |
| Seoul | $19.70M | 24.6°C–30°C | 5.4°C |
| Atlanta | $9.38M | 92.2°F–97.4°F | 5.2°F |
| Dallas | $9.34M | 90.6°F–101°F | 10.4°F |
| Ankara | $7.42M | 29.5°C–32°C | 2.5°C |
| Wellington | $7.42M | 10.2°C–12°C | 1.8°C |
| Seattle | $7.42M | 66.3°F–68.5°F | 2.2°F |
| Buenos Aires | $7.37M | 12.1°C–14°C | 1.9°C |
| Toronto | $7.11M | 36°C–36.6°C | 0.6°C |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /weather/cities · snapshot 2026-07-01. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.