Breaking
Mbappe top scorer odds jump 53.5pp to 97% as whales back YES with $1.18M net flow
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rally in Mbappe’s top goalscorer market, driving YES price from 43.5% to 97%.
Jul 19
#%smarket-moves
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 17 stories.
Breaking
Messi’s Top Scorer Odds Plunge 49.5 Points Despite $855K Whale Bets
Whales bought heavily into Messi’s top goalscorer market even as its YES price dropped from 57.0% to 7.6% in 24 hours, signaling a price-flow divergence.
Jul 19
Breaking
Odds for US halting Iran offensive by July 24 drop 20pp on Polymarket
Whale trading diverged sharply from price moves as market slashed chances of a US halt in Iran offensive operations.
Jul 19
Breaking
“Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?” YES price plunges 64.5pp to 6.3% amid whale divergence
Polymarket’s contract on Israeli parliament dissolution saw a sharp 64.5 percentage point drop in YES odds, while whale flow moved against the price trend.
Jul 16
Breaking
“Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?” YES price drops 47.5pp to 18.5%
Price plunge on Claude Opus release market contrasts with whale flow, signaling market skepticism amid low volume
Jul 16
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 Extension Odds Jump 19.5 Points Amid Whale Support
YES contracts on Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 extension surged to 65.5%, with whale activity aligning to the price move.
Jul 16
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor market jumps 37.7pp to 76.5% on aligned whale buying
Whales added $42K net into YES as Polymarket prices a sharp shift in UK Chancellor odds for 2026.
Jul 16
Breaking
“Over $25M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES odds surge 36pp to 98.6%
Whale activity matched the sharp 36 percentage point increase in YES price on Polymarket, signaling strong conviction in the outcome.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 16.1 pp to 97.0% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price action aligned as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 43 points to 74% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with price move as market sharply repriced likelihood of conflict on July 9
Jul 13