The Polymarket contract asking “Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?” saw its YES price drop sharply by 17.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling from an estimated 49.5% to 32.5% as of July 13, 2026. This major repricing signals a significant shift in market sentiment on this geopolitical event.
Despite the steep decline in the YES price, whale activity diverged from the price move. Large traders collectively bought $204K worth of YES contracts while selling $90K, resulting in a net whale inflow of $113K into YES positions.
Overall trading volume on the market reached $171K in the last 24 hours, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $1.13M with 1,101 unique traders participating. The Polymarket breaking YES price of 32.5% contrasts with the on-chain Polydata mid-price of 22.5%, indicating some discrepancy between the platform’s immediate price and the broader network data.
This tension between price action and whale flow highlights the evolving debate on this geopolitical outcome within the prediction market.
| Market | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643405 |
| 24h price change | +17.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 32.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 49.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 22.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $113K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $204K / $90K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 227 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $171K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,101 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.