Breaking
Odds for FRA vs ESP and ENG vs ARG semifinals jump 47pp to 96.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and market prices converged as the likelihood of this 2026 World Cup semifinal scenario surged sharply within 24 hours.
Jul 12
#%sworld cup
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 117 stories.
Whales
$485K Sell Trade on Norway World Cup Win Counters Whale Buying
A single $485K sell order on Norway’s 2026 World Cup win contrasts with $7.48M whale buying in the same market over 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Erling Haaland 8+ Goals Market Collapses 58.5pp as Whale Flow Diverges
Polymarket’s price for Haaland scoring 8+ goals in the 2026 World Cup plunged from 58.5% to 0.05%, while whale activity failed to support the drop.
Jul 11
Whales
Whales Net $668K Into YES on Switzerland World Cup Win at 1.7% Market Price
332 whales bought $1.48M against $741K sold as total volume hits $124.78M with nine days to close.
Jul 11
Whales
$218K Net Whale Bets on England Clash with 14.4% Market Price for 2026 World Cup
Whales have pushed $1.49M into YES bets over 24 hours despite the market pricing England’s win at 14.4%.
Jul 11
Whales
Whales Add $195K to Spain 2026 World Cup Win Bets Despite 20.9% Market Price
Net whale flow into Spain's win market diverges from a lower implied probability in $103M volume arena closing in 10 days.
Jul 11
Whales
$300K bet on Switzerland’s 2026 World Cup win defies 1.7% market odds
A single wallet’s $300K purchase joins broader whale buying despite the longshot status of Switzerland’s victory.
Jul 11
Whales
$1.26M Net Whale Flow Bets on Belgium to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 0.05% Market Price
Whales have poured $1.26M net into Belgium winning, diverging sharply from the market's 0.05% implied probability on $129.28M volume.
Jul 11
Whales
$934K Net Whale Flow Bets on Spain Despite 21.6% Market Price for 2026 World Cup Win
Whales have bought $4.37M into Spain’s World Cup win market in the last 24 hours, diverging sharply from the 21.6% market-implied probability.
Jul 11
Whales
$508K Buy on Belgium at 1.8% Implied Probability Defies World Cup Market Consensus
A wallet with 76.5% accuracy across 654 positions places a $619K wager on low-probability World Cup outcomes, joining strong whale buying in a $126.5M market.
Jul 10