Breaking
‘Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?’ YES odds plunge 58.7 pp to 9.3% on Polymarket
Whale activity diverged from price, netting $4K into YES even as odds collapsed from 68.0% to 9.3%.
Jul 15
#%sprice move
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 82 stories.
Breaking
Spain World Cup YES price jumps 36.5pp as whales buy $4K more
Polymarket’s World Cup market shifts sharply higher with whale flow backing the move, contrasting on-chain mid price.
Jul 15
Breaking
Argentina World Cup goals market jumps 39pp as whales back YES
Polymarket's odds for Argentina scoring most goals at the 2026 World Cup surged to 78.8%, supported by $3K whale net buying over 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
YES price plunges 50.8pp to 42.0% on Strait of Hormuz transit market amid whale-flow divergence
Despite whales adding $36K net into YES, Polymarket’s price for 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz drops sharply, signaling conflicting signals on market outlook.
Jul 14
Breaking
Spain Semifinals Elimination Odds Collapse 59.5pp Despite $22K Whale Bets
Whale buying diverged sharply from a 59.5 percentage point drop in Spain’s elimination odds, exposing a split between price action and large traders.
Jul 14
Breaking
‘Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?’ YES jumps 56.6 pp to 97.1%
Whales pushed $6K net into YES as the market sharply repriced from 40.5% to 97.1% in 24 hours, with whale flow and price moving in sync.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?” YES price jumps 59.6pp to 97.0%
Whale activity moved in step with a sharp 24-hour surge in odds for Iran targeting shipping on July 14.
Jul 14
Breaking
Credible public sale market jumps 44pp to 85.5% with $21K whale inflow
Whale buying aligned with a sharp price surge from 41.5% to 85.5%, signaling strong conviction in over $30M committed.
Jul 14
Breaking
“US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?” YES price drops 37pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s odds for US imposing Hormuz fees plunge from 48.0% to 11.0%, while whale activity contradicts the sharp price fall.
Jul 14
Breaking
Inflation Market Soars 98.4pp to 100% as Whales Back Move with $19K Net Buys
The “Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?” market jumped from 1.6% to 100%, with whale buying aligning with the price surge.
Jul 14