The market for “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” saw a dramatic shift in probability over the last 24 hours, with the YES contract price tumbling 58.7 percentage points from 68.0% to 9.3%.
This sharp decline in implied odds contrasts with whale trading behavior, which diverged from the price move: 46 unique whales collectively netted $4K into YES, buying $6K and selling $3K. Total 24-hour volume on this market was $6K, matching the whale buy volume, while lifetime market volume stands at $61K with 210 unique traders overall.
The divergence between whale flow and the price move signals a split in market sentiment. While the broader market sharply discounted the probability of a successful Iranian attack on shipping on July 13, whales increased exposure to the YES side, suggesting some large traders see value or information supporting the event despite the plunge in odds.
This disconnect between price and whale flow highlights uncertainty or conflicting views among participants. The combined data suggests the market is recalibrating sharply on this event, but significant whale interest persists at much lower odds, indicating ongoing debate about the outcome’s likelihood.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835636 |
| 24h price change | +58.7 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 9.3% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 68.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 46 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 210 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.