The market on whether Max Martin will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding surged 47.2 percentage points in the past 24 hours, climbing from 25.0% to 72.2% on Polymarket. This dramatic repricing reflects a swift shift in trader sentiment about the likelihood of his attendance.
Whale activity aligned with the price movement, with a net flow of $5K into YES contracts. The whales executed $10K in buy volume and $6K in sell volume, spread across 70 unique whale traders. This alignment between large traders and price action suggests confidence behind the shift rather than a divergence between big-money flow and retail sentiment.
Total 24-hour volume on the market was $10K, indicating that whale trades accounted for the majority of recent activity. Since inception, the market has seen $147K in lifetime volume with participation from 402 unique traders.
The combined surge in price and whale buying signals a strong reassessment of Max Martin’s attendance odds at the wedding. The market’s rapid adjustment and whale conviction reflect new information or shifting probabilities being priced in by participants.
| Market | Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941765 |
| 24h price change | +47.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 72.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 25.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 72.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $5K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $6K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 70 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 402 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.