Breaking
Polymarket YES price for 30 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz plunges 64.4 pp in 24h
Price drop contrasts with $30K whale net inflow, signaling conflicting market signals on transit likelihood.
Jul 14
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Whales
Whales Add $248K Net to YES on England Winning 2026 World Cup at 21.4% Price
Despite a market-implied probability of 21.4%, whales have pushed $248K net into YES positions over the past 24 hours on England's 2026 World Cup win.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?” YES price drops 61.8 pp despite $30K whale inflow
Polymarket’s YES price for the Strait of Hormuz transit market plunged from 95.8% to 34.0% in 24 hours while whales bought $30K net into YES, signaling a sharp divergence between price action and whale behavior.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?” YES contract jumps 81.7 pp to 90.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with the sharp price surge, driving $9K net flow into YES amid $60K 24-hour volume.
Jul 14
Breaking
Ed Miliband Chancellor Market Drops 21pp as Whale Flow Diverges from Price
Polymarket’s price for Ed Miliband becoming UK Chancellor fell sharply despite $4K whale net buying, signaling mixed signals from large traders and market pricing.
Jul 14
Whales
Whales Pour $478K Into Argentina Win Bets Despite 17.3% Market Price
A $478K net inflow from whales into Argentina’s 2026 World Cup win contrasts sharply with the market’s 17.3% implied probability.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?” YES price jumps 87.5 pp to 96.4% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour rise with $7K net flow into YES contracts amid $57K total volume.
Jul 14
Breaking
Fed Rate Hold Odds Surge 18pp to 93.5% on $2.69M Whale Buy Flow
Whales and retail traders pushed the probability of no Fed rate change after July 2026 sharply higher, diverging from on-chain mid-prices.
Jul 14
Breaking
US Iran oil sanction relief odds plunge 23.5pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s ‘US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?’ market saw YES contract drop from 33.5% to 10%, despite whale activity opposing the price shift.
Jul 14
Breaking
Ethereum $1,900 July Contract Surges 38.5pp as Whales Back Rally with $14K Net Buys
Polymarket’s YES price for Ethereum hitting $1,900 in July jumps from 49.5% to 88.0%, supported by whale buying aligned with the price move.
Jul 14