The YES contract on whether 30 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, dropped sharply by 64.4 percentage points in the last 24 hours, falling from approximately 95.0% to 30.6% on Polymarket’s Breaking feed as of July 14.
Despite the steep price decline, whale activity diverged from this move, with $30K net flow into YES contracts over the same period. Whale buy volume reached $57K, outpacing $26K in sell volume, across 69 unique whales. This flow contrasts with the price direction, indicating that large traders were accumulating YES positions even as the market price sharply repriced lower.
Overall, the market saw $39K in 24-hour volume on this question, contributing to a lifetime volume of $92K with 161 unique traders participating. Notably, the Polymarket Breaking YES price at 30.6% differs significantly from Polydata’s on-chain mid-price of 96.4%, highlighting a discrepancy between the live market price and aggregated on-chain data.
The combination of a steep price drop alongside substantial whale buying suggests a nuanced dynamic: while the market price reflects a decreased consensus on the likelihood of 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, whale traders appear to be betting on a higher probability.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +64.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 30.6% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 95.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 96.4% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $30K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $57K / $26K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 69 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $39K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 161 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.