Breaking
Spain Semifinal Elimination Odds Collapse 59.5pp to 0.05% on Polymarket
Whale buying of $38K into YES contrasts sharply with a near-total price drop, signaling a disconnect in the market.
Jul 14
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
France’s chances to top 2026 World Cup goals plunge 47pp to 7.0% despite $11K whale buys
Polymarket YES price for France scoring most goals drops sharply while whale flow contradicts the sell-off.
Jul 14
Whales
$4.81M Net Whale Flow into YES on France Winning 2026 World Cup Against 0.05% Market Price
Whales have bought $11.92M and sold $2.97M on France's 2026 World Cup win market, diverging sharply from the 0.05% market-implied probability.
Jul 14
Breaking
YES price plunges 50.8pp to 42.0% on Strait of Hormuz transit market amid whale-flow divergence
Despite whales adding $36K net into YES, Polymarket’s price for 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz drops sharply, signaling conflicting signals on market outlook.
Jul 14
Breaking
France Semifinal Elimination Contract Jumps 58.8 Points on Polymarket
Whales added $8K to YES positions as the contract price soared from 40.5% to 99.2% in 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
France World Cup Final Odds Collapse 55.5pp to 4.0% Amid Whale Buying Divergence
Despite whales buying $143K into YES, Polymarket's price for France reaching the 2026 final dropped sharply from 59.5% to 4.0% in 24 hours.
Jul 14
Whales
$704K Buy on France 2026 World Cup Win Defies 2.6% Market Odds
A top-ranked trader placed the largest 24-hour bet on Polymarket backing France to win despite low implied probability, joining strong whale buying in the market.
Jul 14
Breaking
YES price on 30 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 44.3pp to 48.5% amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s price for 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, fell sharply despite whales increasing YES positions, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 14
Breaking
“US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?” YES price drops 46.5 points on diverging whale flow
Polymarket’s market on US charging Hormuz fees sees a sharp 46.5 pp drop in YES price while whale bets diverge from the price move.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?” YES price jumps 59.6pp to 97.0%
Whale activity moved in step with a sharp 24-hour surge in odds for Iran targeting shipping on July 14.
Jul 14