Breaking
Odds for Shabana Mahmood as UK Chancellor in 2026 jump 45pp to 51.3% on Polymarket
Whales supported the surge with a $22K net buy into YES contracts amid $47K 24-hour volume.
Jul 15
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Whales
$399K bet against consensus on Fed rate hike after July 2026 meeting
A single wallet with 85.2% accuracy backs a longshot Fed interest rate increase, joining whale buying in a $12M market.
Jul 15
Breaking
PayPal acquisition odds jump 52.5 points to 68% as whales back the move
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour price surge, signaling growing conviction on PayPal deal timing.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 52.5pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract sees a sharp drop in YES price amid $14K volume, with whale bets diverging from market direction.
Jul 15
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood’s odds jump 52.9 points to 59.2% with $21K whale inflow
Whales and market trading aligned as YES price surged from 6.3% to 59.2% in 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 15
Breaking
UK Home Secretary 2026 ‘No Successor’ Odds Drop 58pp to 33.5% Amid Whale Flow Divergence
Polymarket’s 'no next Home Secretary' market saw a sharp 58 percentage point decline in YES price despite whales adding $6K net into YES contracts, highlighting a split between price action and whale behavior.
Jul 15
Whales
Whales place $4.94M net bets on France to win 2026 World Cup despite 0.05% market price
A $4.94M net inflow into YES contrasts with a market-implied probability of 0.05%, highlighting a rare divergence in the World Cup winner market.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES price dropped 34.5 pp in 24h
Whale flow diverged sharply from the price, signaling conflicting signals on Credible's public sale funding prospects.
Jul 15
Breaking
Google Gemini Pro July 31, 2026 Release Odds Drop 53.1pp Amid Whale Flow Divergence
YES contract on Google Gemini Pro release fell sharply from 76.1% to 22.9% despite $4K whale net buying, highlighting a split between price action and whale behavior.
Jul 15
Breaking
July 2026 hottest month prediction jumps 36 percentage points to 79.5%
Whales supported the sharp rise in odds with $11K net flow into YES contracts amid $17K 24-hour volume on Polymarket.
Jul 15