Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor Odds Surge 27.9pp to 84.4% with Whale Support
Whale buying aligned with a 27.9 percentage point jump in YES price on Polymarket’s UK Chancellor 2026 question.
Jul 15
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
“Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?” YES price plunges 43.5 pp despite $5K whale inflow
Polymarket’s contract on the UK Foreign Secretary question dropped from 56.0% to 12.5% in 24 hours while whales increased their YES bets, signaling a split between price moves and large trader activity.
Jul 15
Breaking
Toby Doeden’s 2026 South Dakota GOP Primary Win Odds Drop 28.5pp Amid Whale Buying
Whale investors added $4K to YES contracts even as market probability plunged from 40% to 11.5%.
Jul 15
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension odds jump 28pp to 54.5% on Polymarket
Whale bets moved in sync with a sharp rise in probability for Claude Fable 5 paid-plan extension by July 19.
Jul 15
Breaking
Google Gemini Pro no-release odds jump 47pp to 78.5% as whales back YES
The market for no new Gemini Pro model by July 31, 2026, rallied sharply alongside $6K whale bets affirming the surge.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 53pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract dropped from 90.0% to 37.0% despite whale buying diverging from price
Jul 15
Breaking
Google Gemini Pro release odds jump 55pp to 78.5% as whales back no-release
Whales aligned with a sharp 55.0 pp rise in the chance that no next Google Gemini Pro model arrives by July 31, 2026, pushing the market price to 78.5%.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran Gulf attack odds plunge 50pp as whale flow diverges from price
Price on Iran military action dropped sharply from 90.5% to 40.5% despite whale bets moving against the decline.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds plunge 23pp despite $4K whale bets on YES
Whale activity diverged from price, as market’s YES probability dropped sharply from 27.5% to 4.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action odds tumble 46.5pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract slashed YES probability from 91.0% to 44.5%, despite whale trading opposing the price move.
Jul 15