Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor Market Jumps 40.1pp to 83.2% on Whale Buying
Whales added $37K to YES contracts as market odds for Mahmood as UK Chancellor in 2026 surged sharply.
Jul 15
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Toby Doeden’s 2026 South Dakota GOP Primary Odds Drop 30pp Despite $4K Whale Bet
Whales increased YES positions by $4K while the market price for Toby Doeden to win plunged from 40.0% to 10.0%.
Jul 15
Breaking
UK Foreign Secretary Market YES Price Drops 37pp Despite $4K Whale Buying
Whales bought $4K into the YES side even as its probability plunged from 57.5% to 20.5% in 24 hours, signaling a divergence between price and whale flow.
Jul 15
Breaking
Nike World Cup shirt contract tumbles 22.9 pp as whale flow diverges from price
The market price for Nike as 2026 World Cup shirt maker dropped from 23.0% to 0.05%, while whales increased their YES bets by $3K.
Jul 15
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood’s Odds Surge 28.7pp to 81.5% on Polymarket Amid Whale Buying
Whale activity and price movement aligned as confidence in Mahmood’s 2026 Chancellor bid surged sharply in one day.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran MOU Withdrawal Odds Drop 23pp Despite $29K Whale Bets
Whales bought $42K in YES shares even as the market slashed the probability from 35.5% to 12.5%.
Jul 15
Breaking
Europe’s chances of winning 2026 World Cup drop 23pp as whales diverge
Europe's YES price on the 2026 FIFA World Cup fell sharply despite $168K whale buying, showing a split between price moves and whale flow.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 63 points amid diverging whale flow
Polymarket's 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?' market saw a sharp 24.5% YES price despite whales moving against the price shift.
Jul 15
Markets
LeBron James 2028 US Presidential Election Market Hits $54.10M in Volume at 0.35% Yes Price
Newly launched prediction market on LeBron James’ 2028 presidential bid draws $54.10M in volume with a 0.35% chance priced in.
Jul 15
PMX Index
Polydata PMX composite slips to 39.1 as crypto activity hits 43-day high
The proprietary PMX index shows overall market mood below neutral, driven by weak sentiment despite peak crypto activity.
Jul 15