Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds drop 23pp despite $10K whale buy-in
YES contract price on Polymarket fell from 94.0% to 71.0% as whale buying diverged from market pricing.
Jul 16
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
John Healey Defence Secretary Odds Drop 20.5pp Amid Whale Selling Divergence
Polymarket’s contract on John Healey’s 2026 Defence Secretary appointment fell from 68.5% to 48.0%, with whale activity diverging from the price move.
Jul 16
Breaking
South America’s World Cup Win Odds Jump 22pp to 41.5% on Polymarket
Whales backed the sharp rise in South America’s 2026 World Cup chances with $53K net buys, driving a major price shift.
Jul 16
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 Extension Odds Jump 25.5 Points on Polymarket
Whale activity and price moves aligned as the probability of plan extension rose sharply to 60.5%.
Jul 16
Breaking
Yvette Cooper’s odds to become UK Home Secretary jump 41.9 points to 51.5%
Whale bets moved in line with a dramatic 24-hour price surge on Polymarket’s latest UK political market.
Jul 16
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension odds jump 28.5 pp to 63.5% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligns with price surge as market sharply reprices likelihood of Claude Fable 5 paid-plan extension by July 19.
Jul 16
Breaking
“Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 19, 2026?” YES price plunges 47.5 pp in 24 hours
The market slashed its probability from 53.0% to 5.5% despite whale bets holding steady, signaling a sharp shift in sentiment.
Jul 16
Breaking
Alibaba AI model market drops 25.8pp despite $3K whale inflow
Polymarket's contract on Alibaba’s AI leadership at July 2026 falls sharply even as whales add $3K into YES positions.
Jul 16
Breaking
Ethereum $2,000 in July? YES price jumps 16pp to 61.5% with whale support
Whales contributed a net $12K into YES contracts as Ethereum hitting $2,000 in July gained significant odds on Polymarket.
Jul 16
Whales
Whales Bet $501K on LeBron James Winning 2028 US Presidency at 0.35% Market Price
A net $501K whale influx into YES contrasts with the market's low 0.35% implied probability in the LeBron 2028 Presidential Election market.
Jul 16