Breaking
Israel x Iran ceasefire odds jump 26pp to 75% with whale flow confirming move
Polymarket’s market on ceasefire continuation shows strong alignment between whale bets and price surge, signaling heightened confidence.
Jul 17
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Darline Graham Nordone’s Nomination Odds Surge 55 Points to 69% on Polymarket
Whale activity tracked the sharp 55-point jump in YES price for South Carolina Senate GOP nomination market.
Jul 17
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 YES price jumps 17.1pp to 90.1% as whales back the move
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour price rise, pushing the launch probability from 73.0% to 90.1%.
Jul 17
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension odds fall 28pp as whale bets diverge
Polymarket’s “Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?” contract dropped from 77.5% to 49.5% despite whale flows moving against the price shift.
Jul 17
Breaking
Darline Graham Nordone Senate Nominee Odds Surge 55.7 Points to 70% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 55.7 percentage point jump in the likelihood Darline Graham Nordone wins the South Carolina Republican Senate nomination.
Jul 17
Breaking
Ethereum $2,000 July Market YES Price Drops 15pp Despite $16K Whale Buy
Whales increased their YES bets by $16K even as the market price for Ethereum hitting $2,000 in July fell sharply from 47.5% to 32.5%.
Jul 17
Breaking
Claude Opus July 22 release odds jump 25.5 points to 62%
Whale activity mirrored the sharp rise in YES price, reinforcing the market’s growing confidence.
Jul 17
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Collapse 86.9pp Despite $28K Whale Bets
Polymarket’s “Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?” market plunged from 87.0% to 0.15% even as whales bought $28K in YES contracts, signaling a sharp divergence between price action and large investor flow.
Jul 17
Breaking
Apple’s odds to be largest company by July 31 jump 18.4 pp to 41.8% on Polymarket
Whale buying of $16K supported a sharp 24-hour rise in market odds on Apple's market cap status.
Jul 17
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Surges 38.5 Points as Whales Back YES
Polymarket's contract on Iran attacking a Gulf State on July 15 jumps to 78.5% with $14K whale net buys confirming the rapid price shift.
Jul 17