Breaking
Odds for Claude Opus Model Release by July 24, 2026, Drop 21pp Amid Whale Buying
Despite a 21 percentage point drop in YES price, whale flow moved $5K net into YES contracts, signaling a divergence on Polymarket.
Jul 20
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Trump in WC Champions Photo contract surges 36pp to 99.6% with $1.14M whale inflow
Whales and price moves aligned as Polymarket’s “Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?” contract jumped sharply in a single day.
Jul 20
Breaking
Odds for 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, jump 16.8 pp to 30.8%
Whales increased exposure with $6K net inflow into YES contracts, aligning with the sharp price move on Polymarket.
Jul 20
Breaking
Claude Opus July 22, 2026 Release Odds Drop 26pp as Whale Flow Diverges
Polymarket’s YES contract for the Claude Opus release fell from 41.0% to 15.0% despite whale buying diverging from price action.
Jul 20
Breaking
Trump WC Champions Photo YES jumps 36.4pp to 99.5% on $1.13M whale inflows
Whales and retail traders aligned as the market surged from 63.0% to near certainty in 24 hours.
Jul 20
Breaking
Lucy Powell’s odds to be UK Culture Secretary jump 43.1 points to 47.6% in 24h
Whale activity backed the sharp price rise as the market’s 24-hour volume reached $6K, signaling strong conviction.
Jul 20
Breaking
US halt in Iran offensive by July 21? YES price jumps 19.5 points on Polymarket
Whale activity tracked the sharp rise in odds as market confidence in a US announcement grows.
Jul 20
Breaking
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? YES price drops 15.5 pp amid whale sell-off
Whale activity diverged from price movement as YES odds on Iran withdrawal fell from 29.0% to 13.5% despite $21K net whale inflow.
Jul 20
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds plunge 46.6 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price despite $3K whale net buying, signaling conflicting signals between price and large traders.
Jul 20
Breaking
UBJP’s chances jump 18.5 points to 77.5% in BARMM election market
Polymarket’s latest data shows whale activity confirming a sharp price increase on UBJP winning most seats in 2026 BARMM elections.
Jul 20