Breaking
France 3rd Place World Cup Odds Plunge 57pp Despite $44K Whale Buy Flow
Polymarket’s “France 3rd place” contract dropped from 64.5% to 7.5% in 24 hours, even as whales added $44K net to YES positions.
Jul 18
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Israel x Iran ceasefire odds drop 26pp to 38.5% despite whale buying
Polymarket's Israel-Iran ceasefire market saw a sharp 26 percentage point decline in YES odds while whales increased net exposure to YES contracts.
Jul 18
Breaking
Oleksandr Syrskyi exit odds jump 39.5pp to 73% on Polymarket in 24h
Whale betting aligned with sharp market repricing on Ukraine Commander-in-Chief's tenure ending by 2026
Jul 18
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action market YES price drops 35pp as whale flow diverges
Whales bought $9K of YES contracts even as Polymarket’s price fell sharply from 79.0% to 44.0%.
Jul 18
Breaking
Odds for next Claude Opus release by July 22, 2026, drop 16pp to 51% despite whale buying
Price for 'Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?' fell sharply while whale flow diverged, signaling mixed market signals.
Jul 18
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15? YES odds drop 40pp in 24h amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?' market saw YES contract odds plunge from 84.0% to 44.0%, while whales increased YES exposure, signaling conflicting signals between price and whale activity.
Jul 18
Breaking
“Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?” YES price drops 21.5 pp despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from price as market odds for ceasefire fell sharply to 43.0% on $32K volume
Jul 18
Breaking
Iran military action odds drop 40.5 pp despite $9K whale buys
Whale flows diverged from price as the market cut YES odds nearly in half over 24 hours.
Jul 18
Breaking
Max Martin Wedding Bet Jumps 41.9 Points as Whales Back YES with $5K Net Flow
The market on Max Martin attending Taylor Swift's wedding surged from 25.0% to 66.9% amid strong whale buying aligned with price moves.
Jul 18
Markets
Argentina’s 2026 World Cup Market Hits $158.59M, Yes at 40.2%
The largest sports market on Polymarket nears its close with high stakes and significant trader concentration.
Jul 18