The market probability for “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?” dropped 21.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, moving from 64.5% to 43.0% on Polymarket as of July 18, 2026.
Despite this sharp decline in the YES price, whale activity diverged from the price movement by net buying YES contracts. This divergence suggests that large traders are either anticipating a reversal or responding to different information than the broader market sentiment reflected in the price drop.
The 24-hour volume on this contract reached $32K, indicating moderate trading interest amid the price shift. The significant fall in probability points to growing market skepticism about the ceasefire holding through the end of July, even as whales accumulate positions supporting the YES outcome.
This combination of a steep decline in implied probability alongside net whale buying highlights a split between retail and large trader perspectives.
Overall, the contrasting signals between price and whale flow underscore a complex market dynamic around the ceasefire question, reflecting diverging views on the conflict’s trajectory.
| Market | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2952486 |
| 24h price change | +21.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 43.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 64.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $32K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-18. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.