Breaking
Ed Miliband Foreign Secretary odds jump 30pp to 92% on Polymarket
Whale activity and retail volume both supported a sharp rise in odds for Miliband becoming UK Foreign Secretary in 2026.
Jul 19
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Kareem Allam’s 2026 Vancouver Mayoral Win Odds Drop 39.5pp Despite Whale Buying
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 39.5 percentage point decline in Kareem Allam’s win probability on Polymarket over 24 hours.
Jul 19
Breaking
Alibaba AI market surges 29.3pp to 68% as whale buying backs the rally
Whales contributed $5K net into YES as Polymarket sharply repriced Alibaba’s lead in Chinese AI models by July 2026.
Jul 19
Whales
$440K sell order hits “Exact Score: Spain 3 – 0 Argentina?”
A single wallet sold $802K on a low-probability Spain 3-0 exact score outcome, diverging from broader whale buying.
Jul 19
Breaking
US halt on Iran offensive odds drop 15.5 points despite whale buying
Polymarket's 'US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?' market falls from 80% to 64.5% even as whales increase YES bets, signaling a split between retail and large traders.
Jul 19
Breaking
Moonshot’s odds for best Chinese AI model by July 2026 drop 19.7pp despite whale buying
Whales bought $9K of YES contracts while the market price fell from 48.4% to 28.7%, showing a divergence between flow and price.
Jul 19
Breaking
Claude Opus July 22, 2026 Release Odds Drop 36.5 pp Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Polymarket’s 'Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?' market saw a sharp 36.5 percentage point decline in YES price despite whale activity moving against the price trend.
Jul 19
Breaking
Mbappe Top Scorer Market Surges 51pp to 92.5% on $590K Whale Buy Flow
Kylian Mbappe’s odds to lead scoring at 2026 World Cup more than double amid aligned whale buying and rising volume.
Jul 19
Breaking
Kareem Allam’s 2026 Vancouver mayoral win odds plunge 31.5 pp amid whale buying divergence
YES contract price dropped sharply from 51.5% to 20.0% despite $5K whale net inflow into YES positions over 24 hours.
Jul 19
Breaking
Mbappe Top Scorer Odds Surge 51pp to 92.5% on Polymarket as Whales Back Move
Whale activity of $581K net inflow into YES contracts accompanied a sharp 24-hour rise in Mbappe top scorer odds to 92.5%.
Jul 19