A single large sell order of $440K targeted the “Exact Score: Spain 3 – 0 Argentina?” outcome in the Spain vs. Argentina exact score market. This trade was part of a series by wallet @shutitfatty, which sold an additional $277K and $84K on the same outcome today, bringing the total sold by this wallet to $802K within the day.
The market-implied probability for this exact score stood at 3.2% at the time of the trades, indicating this was a low-probability outcome. The wallet’s activity contrasts with the broader whale flow on this market over the past 24 hours, which showed $1.34M bought versus $1.00M sold by 108 unique whales, with this wallet’s trades running against that net buying trend.
@shutitfatty’s record shows 54.2% accuracy across 118 resolved positions with a Brier score of 0.2454, based on a lifetime volume of $5.91M and 2,622 trades across 122 markets. This level of experience and accuracy provides context for the size and direction of these trades in a $2.29M total volume market.
The divergence between the wallet’s large sell orders and the market’s implied probability, combined with the wallet’s trading history and the broader whale flows, highlights a significant repositioning on this exact score prediction.
| Direction | SELL |
|---|---|
| Market | Exact Score: Spain 3 – 0 Argentina? |
| Event | Spain vs. Argentina – Exact Score |
| Wallet | @shutitfatty · 0xc29e1cef4256f423e5a3e713d886bd25f98da2ca |
| Amount | $440K |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-19T15:01:13Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.