The market on whether Kylian Mbappe will be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup surged sharply, with the YES contract jumping 51.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours from 41.5% to 92.5%. This dramatic repricing reflects a strong consensus shift favoring Mbappe as the frontrunner for the tournament’s top scorer.
Whale activity on Polymarket bolstered this move, with net whale flow of $590K into the YES contract over the same period. Whale buy volume reached $1.19M, significantly outpacing $599K in sell volume, indicating aggressive accumulation by large traders. The flow aligns closely with the price trend, confirming that the tape and whale buying moved in tandem to push odds higher.
Overall Polymarket volume for the market hit $1.36M in 24 hours, a substantial portion of the lifetime market volume of $6.66M.
The combined picture of a 51.0pp price jump and strong whale buying suggests a rapid re-evaluation of Mbappe’s scoring prospects at the World Cup, reflecting either new information or shifting market sentiment. The market now prices Mbappe’s odds at an overwhelming 92.5%, underscoring his prominence in trader expectations for the event.
| Market | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2069638 |
| 24h price change | +51.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 92.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 41.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 92.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $590K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $1.19M / $599K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 566 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $1.36M |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 9,927 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-19. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.