Breaking
Polymarket Breaking: GPT model debut odds plunge 60pp despite $11K whale bets
Whales bought $11K in YES contracts even as price dropped from 70.0% to 10.0%, signaling a sharp divergence.
Jul 10
#%sprediction-markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 81 stories.
Breaking
Bitcoin $60K dip odds on Polymarket slide 22.5 points as whale bets diverge
Whale activity on Polymarket bucks the sharp 22.5 percentage point drop in Bitcoin dip odds over 24 hours.
Jul 10
Breaking
“Trump signs housing bill by end of July?” YES price plunges 36.5 points amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s YES contract for Trump signing housing bill by end of July dropped from 40.0% to 3.5% despite whale activity moving opposite the price shift.
Jul 10
Breaking
‘Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?’ YES price plunges 30.8 pp amid whale flow-price split
While the YES price collapsed from 32.3% to 1.5% in 24 hours, whales increased net bets by $5K, showing a notable divergence between price action and whale activity.
Jul 10
Whales
Whales Pour $1.10M into Morocco 2026 World Cup Win Despite 0.05% Market Odds
A net $1.10M whale flow into Morocco’s win bet contrasts sharply with its 0.05% market price in a $152.25M volume market.
Jul 10
Breaking
Trump UFO files market jumps 41pp to 88.5% as whale bets confirm rally
Polymarket's 'Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 15?' market surged on aligned whale and retail buying, signaling strong conviction in the outcome.
Jul 10
Breaking
YES price on Iran shipping attack tumbles 21.1pp despite $10K whale inflow
Whales bought $15K into YES even as Polymarket’s price dropped from 22.2% to 1.1%, diverging sharply from on-chain data.
Jul 9
Breaking
Polymarket ‘Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?’ YES price drops 26.6 pp despite whale buying
Whales bought $9K in YES contracts even as market price plunged from 28.6% to 2.1%, signaling a divergence between big-money flow and price action.
Jul 9
Whales
Wallet 0x09b4…7320 places $559K bet against 34.5% market chance on US win
The wallet’s $559K buy on United States vs. Belgium pushes contrary to consensus amid broader whale buying.
Jul 7
Whales
Wallet #10 leaderboard trader buys $313K on Mexico-England draw at 30.5% market chance
A top-10 ranked wallet placed nearly $1M in bets today including a $313K buy against the consensus on a Mexico-England draw.
Jul 6