A single wallet ranked #10 on the 30-day trader leaderboard placed a $313K buy on the “Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?” market, despite the market-implied probability sitting at just 30.5%. This trade stands out as a significant bet against the consensus, signaling a contrarian position within a market that has seen $6.58M in total volume.
The wallet, identified as 0x2c33…0563, has been particularly active today, moving a total of $981K across four large trades. Alongside the $313K purchase on the draw, it sold $350K on “Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?” and bought $186K on “Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” as well as an additional $133K on the same Mexico-England draw market.
This trader’s track record is notable, maintaining 62.1% accuracy across 3,423 resolved positions with a Brier score of 0.2217. Their lifetime volume exceeds $289.84M spanning 262,825 trades across 3,489 markets, and they have realized $7.68M in profit and loss on $237.80M of volume over the past 30 days.
The trade aligns with broader whale activity in the Mexico vs. England market, where 1,094 unique whales have bought $4.09M against $1.52M sold over the last 24 hours. This suggests the $313K buy is part of a larger flow of whale money betting on this outcome.
By backing a draw at a market price of 30.5%, this wallet is pushing against the prevailing odds, highlighting a significant divergence between this trader’s view and the market consensus. Such a large bet from a proven trader adds weight to this contrarian stance within a high-volume market event.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw? |
| Event | Mexico vs. England |
| Wallet | 0x2c33…0563 |
| Amount | $313K |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-06T00:59:47Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.