Iran Gulf State Military Action Odds Drop 42pp as Whale Flow Diverges
YES contract for Iran military action on July 15 fell from 58.0% to 16.0% despite $7K whale net buys, signaling conflicting signals between price and whale activity.
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
YES contract for Iran military action on July 15 fell from 58.0% to 16.0% despite $7K whale net buys, signaling conflicting signals between price and whale activity.
Whale activity and price movement align as Mbappe’s chances at the 2026 World Cup spike sharply.
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 18.5 percentage point drop in the Yes price for Allam’s victory, signaling conflicting market signals.
Polymarket's 'US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?' market sees a sharp 28pp decline in YES price amid divergent whale activity.
Polymarket's 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?' contract fell sharply in price while whale buying diverged from the downward move.
Kylian Mbappe’s 2026 World Cup top scorer market jumps sharply, with whale activity confirming the rapid repricing.
YES contract price for Kareem Allam’s 2026 Vancouver mayoral win fell sharply even as whales added $5K net to YES positions, signaling conflicting market signals.
The market price for a US announcement to stop Iran offensive operations by July 24 fell sharply while whale flow opposed the move, signaling conflicting signals in trader behavior.
Polymarket’s 'Like a Prayer' first-song market sees sharp 24-hour price fall to 10%, while whale bets diverge
Polymarket’s “US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?” market saw a sharp 35.5 percentage point drop in YES price over 24 hours while whale activity diverged from the price move.