Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” market saw its YES price collapse from 95.5% to 4.2% despite whales not supporting the move.
Polymarket's Clacton by-election market sees a sharp 17pp decline in YES price, while whale flow diverges by net buying into YES.
Whale trades and market price moved together as odds more than doubled in 24 hours on Polymarket.
Whales contributed $7K net buying as the market's odds shifted sharply higher, with on-chain price diverging from Polydata's overview.
Polymarket's odds for Iranian military action against a Gulf State on July 9 dropped sharply despite whale activity moving against the price shift.
Despite a market-implied probability of 2.1%, $531K flowed into YES bets from large traders in the Belgium 2026 World Cup market over 24 hours.
Whales increased YES bets by $2K even as contract price fell from 76.5% to 48.0% in 24 hours, signaling conflicting signals.
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” market saw a sharp 71.5 percentage point drop in YES price despite whale activity diverging from the price move.
Whales supported the surge with $3K net buys as the market nearly tripled in probability in 24 hours.
Despite a sharp 61.6 percentage point drop in YES odds, whale activity diverged by not supporting the sell-off in the Iran military action market.
