The probability that an AI model will reach a 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026, surged by 32.0 percentage points in the last 24 hours on Polymarket, jumping from 17.5% to 49.5%. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment toward the feasibility of advanced AI performance within the timeframe.
Whale activity aligned with the price move, with 29 unique whales contributing to a net buy flow of $3K into YES contracts. Whale buy volume reached $6K, outpacing $3K in sells, indicating strong demand among large traders for exposure to this outcome. The 24-hour Polymarket volume on this market was $5K, making whale trades a substantial portion of recent liquidity.
Despite the surge on Polymarket, the Polydata on-chain midprice shows a higher implied probability at 83.5%, highlighting a notable divergence between Polymarket’s current trading price and the broader on-chain consensus. This gap suggests either a lag in Polymarket prices catching up to on-chain data or differing trader expectations across platforms.
With lifetime market volume at $41K and 149 unique traders overall, this market has attracted considerable attention. The combined price and whale flow data signal growing conviction in the possibility of advanced AI models hitting the 1550 Math Arena Score mark by 2026, supported by substantial whale buying reinforcing the recent price rally.
| Market | Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1831671 |
| 24h price change | +32.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 49.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 17.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 83.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 29 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 149 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-10. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.