Breaking
US bank failure by July 31? Polymarket YES price jumps 80.1 points in 24h
Whale activity and market prices moved in tandem as odds surged from 18.0% to 98.1% in a single day.
Jul 10
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 17.5 pp to 4.0% despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?” contract saw a sharp drop in yes price, even as whales increased exposure to the outcome.
Jul 10
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Google’s Math AI model odds jump 33.5 points to 51% as whales back the move
A sharp rise in Polymarket’s “best Math AI model” contract saw whale buying reinforce a big shift in sentiment over 24 hours.
Jul 10
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Russia entering Shevchenko by Sept 30 jumps 18.1 pp to 97.6% on Polymarket
Whales added a net $7K to YES as contract price surged, signaling strong alignment between big bets and market odds.
Jul 10
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Mitch McConnell Senate exit odds drop 20.5pp despite $18K whale buy flow
YES price for McConnell stepping down fell sharply from 68.5% to 48.0% while whales increased exposure by $18K, diverging from price action.
Jul 10
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Iran military action odds plunge 24pp despite whale buying on Polymarket
YES contract for Iran military action on July 10 dropped from 27.5% to 3.5% while whales increased exposure.
Jul 10
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OpenAI GPT model debut odds plunge 78.8 points to 7.0% on Polymarket
Whale activity diverged sharply from price, signaling conflicting market signals on GPT model performance by 2026-end.
Jul 10
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Google Math AI Model Odds Jump 40pp to 58% on Whale Support
Whales contributed $6K net buying as the market sharply repriced Google’s lead in Math AI by July 2026.
Jul 10
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Mbappé World Cup goal contributions market surges 42pp to 75.5% on Polymarket
Whales aligned with a sharp 42 percentage point jump in odds, driving a $1K net buy into YES in the past 24 hours.
Jul 10
Breaking
YES price on next xAI Grok model debut drops 60.1pp to 8.4% amid divergent whale flow
Whale activity diverged sharply from a 60.1 percentage point plunge in YES price, signaling conflicting signals on xAI’s Grok model performance odds.
Jul 10