Breaking
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? YES price drops 16pp despite $40K whale inflow
Whales bought $40K into YES as Polymarket’s Breaking price plunged from 58.5% to 42.5%, signaling a sharp market reassessment.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Launch Odds Drop 17.5 Points in 24 Hours
Despite a sharp fall in the YES price, whale activity diverged by not supporting the move on Polymarket.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds surge 92pp to 94.5% on Polymarket
Whales contributed $11K net buying as the market price jumped from 2.5% to 94.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Whales
$198K Whale Bets on Norway to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 0.05% Market Odds
Large investors direct $198K net into Norway YES while market prices chance at 0.05%, highlighting a divergence between whale flow and crowd consensus.
Jul 12
Breaking
YES price jumps 85.0 pp to 87.2% on Iran shipping attack market
Whales contributed $11K net buying as Polymarket sharply repriced odds for July 12 event
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 25.2 pp despite whale buying
Whale bets on Iran military action rose while market prices sharply dropped from 53.5% to 28.3% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds jump 88.8 pp to 91.0% as whales back YES
Whale activity and a rapid price surge aligned as the market repriced the chance of an Iranian attack on shipping on July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
‘Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift’s wedding?’ YES price jumps 16.7 pp to 87.5%
Whales increased exposure with $2K net buys, reinforcing a sharp market repricing over 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 67.5pp to 75% on July 12
Whale activity and market prices rose together sharply, reflecting a major shift in expectations.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 72pp to 79.5% on July 12 Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with price jump as market rapidly reprices likelihood of conflict
Jul 12