Breaking
YES price on Thomas Chalifoux FL-09 nomination falls 28.5 pp despite $4K whale buying
Whales bought $6K into YES while the market sliced probability from 71.0% to 42.5%, signaling a divergence between flow and price.
Jul 16
#%spolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 128 stories.
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor odds jump 33.3pp to 88.7% with whale backing
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour rise in Shabana Mahmood’s chances to become UK Chancellor in 2026, adding $43K net to YES positions amid $79K total volume.
Jul 16
Breaking
“No next UK Home Secretary in 2026?” YES price plunges 38pp to 19.5% as whale flow diverges
Polymarket sees a sharp drop in the probability of no next Home Secretary despite $6K whale buying that contrasts with the market move.
Jul 16
Breaking
“No next UK Home Secretary in 2026?” YES price plunges 29 pp despite $6K whale inflow
Whale buying diverged sharply from a 29.0 pp drop in YES price to 28.5%, highlighting conflicting signals in this UK political market.
Jul 16
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on Israeli parliament dissolution falls 23.2 points amid whale flow divergence
Whale trading flows diverged sharply from the 23.2 percentage point drop in the probability that Israel’s parliament will dissolve by July 16.
Jul 16
Breaking
Russell Fry GOP Senate nominee odds tumble 27.5pp to 35% amid divergent whale flow
Polymarket’s South Carolina Senate nomination market sees sharp YES price drop while whale bets diverge from the selloff.
Jul 16
Breaking
Russell Fry Senate Nominee Odds Drop 35pp Despite Whale Buying
Polymarket’s South Carolina Senate market sees a sharp YES price fall from 62.5% to 27.5% as whale flow diverges from the tape.
Jul 16
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor Market Surges 37.8pp to 81% with Whale Buying Support
Polymarket’s odds for Shabana Mahmood becoming UK Chancellor in 2026 jump sharply, backed by $43K whale net inflows.
Jul 16
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor market jumps 37.7pp to 76.5% on aligned whale buying
Whales added $42K net into YES as Polymarket prices a sharp shift in UK Chancellor odds for 2026.
Jul 16
Breaking
Yes Price on Russell Fry Senate Nominee Drops 30pp Despite Whale Flow Divergence
Polymarket's contract on Russell Fry's Republican nomination fell from 62.5% to 32.5% in 24 hours, with whale activity moving against the price trend.
Jul 16