Breaking
Republican Senate incumbents’ odds jump 29.2 pp to 94.7% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp rise in probability for exactly two incumbent losses in 2026 nominating elections.
Jul 11
#%spolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 128 stories.
Breaking
“Kash Patel out by December 31?” YES jumps 17.0 pp as whales back the move
Polymarket’s contract on Kash Patel’s departure sees a sharp repricing from 40.0% to 57.0%, supported by $8K whale net inflows.
Jul 11
Breaking
Republican Senate Incumbents’ Odds Surge 16.8pp to 95.5% on Polymarket
Whales backed the sharp price rise with $3K net buys, pushing the market sharply higher in one day.
Jul 10
Breaking
Mitch McConnell Senate exit odds drop 20.5pp despite $18K whale buy flow
YES price for McConnell stepping down fell sharply from 68.5% to 48.0% while whales increased exposure by $18K, diverging from price action.
Jul 10
Breaking
Mitch McConnell Senate exit odds drop 21pp to 47.5% amid whale-flow divergence
Polymarket’s YES price for McConnell stepping down fell sharply despite $16K whale net buying, revealing a split between price action and large trader behavior.
Jul 10
Breaking
French 2026 United Left primary cancellation odds jump 22pp to 71.5% on Polymarket
Whale buying aligned with a sharp price rise, pushing the market from near even to a strong majority for cancellation.
Jul 10
Breaking
Samuel Alito retirement odds plunge 18.6 points as whale bets diverge
Polymarket's contract on Alito retiring by July 15, 2026, falls from 23.2% to 4.6% despite whale activity opposing the price move.
Jul 9
Whales
Whale buys $1.64M on longshot Will Graham Platner for 2028 Democratic nomination
A single $1.64M bet on a 0.85% probability outcome joins broad whale buying in the 2028 Democratic nominee market.
Jul 6