#%smarket-moves

Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 17 stories.

Odds for US Iran blockade by July 31 fall 22pp despite $154K whale buy-in

Whale flow diverged sharply from price, signaling conflicting signals on Polymarket’s Iran blockade market.

BREAKING 2 MIN 00:39 UTC

Jul 13

Whales and market price moved together as the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31 surged sharply.

BREAKING 2 MIN 16:49 UTC

Jul 12

Whales contributed $31K net buying into the LCK MSI 2026 YES contract, aligning with the sharp price surge.

BREAKING 2 MIN 12:39 UTC

Jul 12

Whales pushed the “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” market higher as the YES price surged from 13.9% to 46.9% in 24 hours.

BREAKING 2 MIN 14:38 UTC

Jul 11

Whale activity diverged from sharply lower market prices, signaling conflicting views on Anthropic’s AI model prospects.

BREAKING 2 MIN 17:19 UTC

Jul 10

A trader with 77.3% accuracy backs Morocco to win the World Cup, pushing against the market consensus and joining strong whale buying.

WHALES 2 MIN 17:28 UTC

Jul 9

The wallet’s $559K buy on United States vs. Belgium pushes contrary to consensus amid broader whale buying.

WHALES 2 MIN 22:08 UTC

Jul 7